If you woke up this morning and caught yourself thinking, “hey, what’s up with Brexit right now?”, you’re in luck. We’re on the case with a super-quick overview, investigating the most important bits. Then we will look at some key fundamental events happening this week.
How about those trade deals?
Well, it’s not great to be honest. And that’s coming from the UK government itself!
Last week, official estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated a Brexit loss of over £1,250 per person over the next few years. That’s over 178 times more than the most optimistic prediction of the benefits received from the trade deals. Yikes!
Most of the free trade deals that the UK has signed with countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam, are essentially equal replacements for deals that the UK would have benefited from had it remained in the EU. In other words, they have given no economic benefit whatsoever; some of them may actually be worse deals than the previous ones.
The government’s Labour opposition said that the Brexit trade deal with the EU must be improved to “stop the haemorrhaging of our trade with Europe”.
Just how that can happen is a mystery at this point.
How’s the pound doing?
Aside from trade deals, the pound is suffering a bit. GBP slipped last week, touching its lowest point in more than two weeks versus the dollar and euro. A large part of that was due to the rising pressure coming from uncertainty over the Bank of England’s policy stance and the escalating spat with France over fish.
What’s the deal with Article 16?
This all comes in the middle of UK cabinet discussions around the repercussions of triggering Article 16. Article 16 allows either side to take unilateral action if they feel that the post-Brexit trade agreement is having a highly negative impact on their interests.
Maros Sefcovic, a deputy head of the bloc’s executive European Commission, said “Let there be no doubt that triggering Article 16 to seek the renegotiation of the Protocol would have serious consequences.”
He did also say that such talk appeared to be nothing but theory at this point. However, it remains a striking point. The UK will always have that particular trump card to play and as long as it does, it will lead to uncertainty.
We will, as ever, continue to watch this space for more developments!
What do you think?
What do you make of the current situation? Can the UK climb out of its hole? Tweet us your thoughts at @_contentworks; and if you’re looking for regular and insightful fintech marketing content, please follow us!
What’s on the trading agenda week commencing 08/11/21?
A busy week lies ahead for the currency markets. Here are all of the top events to take note of.
● No major events planned.
● EUR — ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (NOV)
● USD — PPI MoM (OCT)
● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (NOV)
● CNY — Inflation Rate YoY (OCT)
● USD — Inflation Rate YoY (OCT)
● AUD — Employment Change (OCT); Unemployment Rate (OCT)
● GBP — GDP 3-Month Avg (SEP); GDP Growth Rate YoY Preliminary (Q3);
● GDP YoY (SEP)
● EUR — ECB Macroeconomic Projections
● CNY — New Yuan Loans (OCT)
● USD — Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (NOV)
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The Contentworks team