Can the New Pope Influence the Financial Markets?

On May 8, 2025, a puff of white smoke above the Sistine Chapel announced a seismic shift in both religious and geopolitical history: for the first time ever, an American had been elected Pope. Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago became Pope Leo XIV, succeeding the late Pope Francis. A man of deep missionary experience, particularly in Latin America, Leo XIV has long been seen as a thoughtful moderate within the Church, known for his focus on governance, integrity, and Catholic social teaching.

His election, however, hasn’t escaped controversy or conspiracy. Within hours, social media lit up with wild theories, some suggesting that the conclave was “nudged” by American interests or even former President Donald Trump himself. Is there any merit to such theories? Probably not. But they do reveal something fascinating: the papacy, despite being an ancient religious office, still holds a grip on global imagination, including that of financial markets. You know we love researching a good story, come join us!

How Much Power Does the Pope Really Have Over Markets?

Technically, the Pope has no control over global financial institutions. He doesn’t move interest rates, regulate central banks, or direct capital flows. But popes wield soft power. The ability to influence culture, ethics, and policy through moral authority. This influence can shift investor sentiment, corporate behaviour, and even national policies.

When Pope Francis published Laudato Si’ in 2015, a landmark encyclical on climate change and economic inequality, it sent shockwaves through the business world. The document criticised unrestrained capitalism, condemned environmental degradation, and urged major reforms. Companies with large fossil fuel portfolios felt the heat, and ethical investing saw a surge.

In 2024, Francis again turned heads when he told Italian bankers to invest in “hope, not war,” condemning profit-driven arms investments. The statement was covered widely in the financial press, with speculation on how it might impact ethical funds and institutions affiliated with Catholic social teaching.

Popes and Markets: A Brief History

The papacy has a long and often tangled history with money and markets. One of the most direct interventions came in 1745, when Pope Benedict XIV issued Vix Pervenit, condemning usury (charging interest on loans). The encyclical didn’t just shape Catholic doctrine, it influenced European banking practices for decades and laid the groundwork for future Church teachings on economic justice.

Fast forward to the 20th century, and you’ll find perhaps the most dramatic instance of papal financial engineering: the hiring of Bernardino Nogara in 1929. Appointed by Pope Pius XI to manage the Vatican’s finances following the Lateran Treaty with Mussolini, Nogara built an expansive investment portfolio that included shares in companies producing birth control products, despite Church teachings against contraception. The Vatican’s modern wealth owes much to Nogara’s aggressive, and sometimes controversial, strategies.

In more recent history, Pope John Paul II played a pivotal role in ending communism in Eastern Europe, a geopolitical shift that deeply impacted markets and global trade. While not a direct financial move, his support for Solidarity in Poland helped catalyse a cascade of economic liberalizations across the Eastern Bloc.

Conspiracy Theories and the New Pope

Back to 2025: the election of Pope Leo XIV has inspired a new wave of conspiracies that mix politics, finance, and religion into a particularly spicy stew.

#1 The Trump Conclave Theory

Perhaps the most outlandish theory is that Donald Trump, now back in the public spotlight as a media mogul, orchestrated Prevost’s election. The theory posits that Trump saw a geopolitical advantage in having a fellow American on the Holy See’s throne. Possibly to counterbalance European influence or to gain a moral edge in conservative circles. Supposed “evidence” includes old photos of Trump at Vatican events and Prevost’s prior statements on globalism. No credible sources support this, but it’s become fodder for fringe podcasts, TikToks and YouTube channels.

#2 The Jesuit Coup

Another popular theory claims that the Jesuits, long viewed with suspicion by traditionalist Catholics, staged a silent coup. Since Prevost studied under Jesuits and has ties to their theological circles, some allege that the Society of Jesus finally seized full control of the papacy. Under this theory, the financial angle is that Jesuit-aligned funds will soon direct billions toward ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investing, as a way to reshape the market according to Catholic ethics.

#3 Black Budget Vatican

More economic in nature is the “Black Budget Vatican” theory. This one claims that Pope Leo XIV’s election is part of a larger effort to restructure the Vatican Bank (formally, the Institute for the Works of Religion). Supposedly, shadowy international donors, including crypto billionaires, have been funnelling funds into Vatican assets, with the pope as a pliable figurehead. Proponents point to the 2020 London real estate scandal, in which millions were lost in opaque investment deals, as evidence that something darker is at play.

Again, there is no proof for any of this, but these stories underscore the intrigue and mystique still surrounding the papacy in an age of transparency.

Why the Pope Can Comment on Financial Issues

Moral Authority, Not Legislative Power

The Pope doesn’t have legislative or regulatory power over financial institutions, but he does have moral authority as the spiritual leader of the Roman Catholic Church, which has over 1.3 billion adherents worldwide. His role includes guiding Catholics on how to live ethically in all areas of life — including economics.

Catholic Social Teaching (CST)

The Church has a long tradition of commenting on financial and economic issues, primarily through its body of social doctrine known as Catholic Social Teaching. This includes:

• The dignity of work and rights of workers
• Ethical business conduct
• Just distribution of wealth
• Concern for the poor and marginalized

Public Influence and Global Engagement

The Pope regularly addresses political and financial leaders at summits like the G7, Davos, or the United Nations. These are not binding policy directives, but they can inspire shifts in attitudes, policies, or even investment strategies, especially for Catholic-run organizations like hospitals, schools, and charities.

What Happens If the Pope Speaks on Crypto, AI, or Global Trade?

While Pope Leo XIV hasn’t yet made sweeping economic pronouncements, Vatican watchers anticipate he may soon address the ethical concerns surrounding AI and financial automation. As the world of finance grows increasingly algorithmic, a papal voice could shift global conversations about fairness, bias, and the dignity of labour.

The same applies to cryptocurrencies. In 2022, the Vatican warned about the moral pitfalls of crypto speculation. If Leo XIV reaffirms or expands on those concerns, particularly around energy consumption, fraud, and inequality, it could influence how Catholic institutions engage with digital assets.

Conclusion

While the Pope cannot raise or lower interest rates, his words carry moral weight that can ripple through markets. Ethical investing, environmental policy, and economic justice are increasingly shaped by cultural forces, and the papacy, with its global audience of over a billion people, remains one of the world’s most powerful moral platforms.

Pope Leo XIV may or may not upend the financial world. But if history is any guide, his words, and the myths that surround him, may have more influence on your investment portfolio than you’d expect. For engaging financial services articles, analysis and social media, get in contact with our team.