Contentworks Presents - A Game Of Oil
The global oil situation, which has unravelled over the last 6 weeks, really does resemble the struggle between the houses of Westeros, with each player keen to secure their own objectives. But who is who in this mighty tussle? Read on to find out. We’ll also update you on the key fundamental events of the week. Ready?
War in Ukraine continues to impact oil prices
Oil prices rose 2% on Friday but also closed their second straight weekly decline after IEA countries announced plans to release crude from their strategic stocks. For the week, Brent dropped 1.5% while WTI slid 1%.
Some analysts are worried that this decline is happening because of artificial measures, as IEA nations agreed on a deal to release 60 million barrels over the next six months. That follows the United States’ 180 million barrel release pledge announced in March.
Artificially lowering prices means that demand will increase, which will burn out that supply pretty quickly. It’s a risky game. Speaking of games…
If Westeros did energy crises…
If the current global energy situation were a continuation of George R.R. Martin’s classic, who would be which house? Let’s have a look…
Russia (House Lannister)
Possesses tremendous wealth and power, yet achieves its aims using some allegedly questionable methods. Almost all of the other houses have grown extremely weary and recent actions have seen the house totally ostracised.
The other houses of Westeros hope that a forced reduction in the trading of crucial raw materials will encourage a change of heart in the Lannisters. But so far, any change remains to be seen.
The US (House Stark)
Has spent years building profitable trade networks with other houses, but as push has come to shove, the Starks have quickly learnt that they must rely on themselves.
Last week, Biden announced that the US would tap into its own oil reserves. This move constitutes a decrease of about 40 per cent since Biden took office in January 2021 — a level not recorded since 1984.
The European Union (House Tyrell)
One of the largest and most wealthy houses in Westeros, yet relies on a constant flow of raw materials from House Lannister to maintain domestic happiness. It now has to carefully balance the needs of its people with its own moral fibre.
The house has historically been quite neutral, yet it’s increasingly looking to place more punitive measures on House Lannister, largely to the detriment of its own economy.
OPEC — the Iron Bank of Braavos
Where all the real power lies. Far away from the conflict, sitting on the sides, biding its time. As Russia only supplies 10% of the world’s oil, OPEC nations are ready to step in to fill the breach. With an estimated 60% of the world’s oil exports, OPEC has the power to change the game entirely. But will it?
What do you think?
Think you know who House Targaryen could be? Where does the Night King fit into all of this? Let us know what you think and why by tweeting us at @_contentworks.
Top fundamental events week commencing 11/04/22
There’s a busy week ahead of us. Here are all the events to look out for.
● CNY — Inflation Rate YoY (MAR)
● GBP — GDP 3-Month Avg (FEB); GDP YoY (FEB)
● EUR — Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final (MAR); ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (APR)
● GBP — Employment Change (JAN); Unemployment Rate (FEB)
● CNY — New Yuan Loans (MAR)
● USD — Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAR); Inflation Rate YoY (MAR)
● AUD — Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (APR)
● GBP — Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAR); Inflation Rate YoY (MAR)
● USD — PPI MoM (MAR)
● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision
● AUD — Employment Change (MAR); Unemployment Rate (MAR)
● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision; ECB Press Conference
● USD -Retail Sales MoM (MAR); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (APR)
No major events are planned.
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The Contentworks team