As families gather, turkeys take centre stage and traders quietly eye the screens, Thanksgiving brings a curious blend of feast, travel and some market quirks. Grab your pecan pie and let’s explore how the financial markets behave around Thanksgiving, why it matters for traders, and the lighter side of “markets taking a mini-vacation”.
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Market Moves Around Thanksgiving
Markets in the U.S. are closed on Thanksgiving Day and have a short trading day the following Friday.
Historically, the S&P 500 tends to post positive returns during Thanksgiving week. Going back to 1928, the S&P rose about 60% of the time during that week, with an average return around +0.28% (median +0.46%).
In U.S. presidential election years, the odds improve. About 75% of the time the S&P posts a gain during Thanksgiving week, with an average return closer to +0.88%.
A more detailed study shows the days just before and just after Thanksgiving tend to show better strength (and lower volatility). Though the effect isn’t huge and the variability is large.
One interesting trading strategy study found that going long from the close the Monday of Thanksgiving week and exiting around the first trading day of December showed an average gain of 0.51% with an 80% win ratio (for a specific retail-sector focused set) over many years.
Why Does This Happen?
Shortened week, lighter volume: With traders taking time off, some believe fewer participants and lighter volume can amplify modest moves.
Holiday optimism: The mood shifts toward consumer spending, more retail activity (especially with the upcoming Black Friday) and expectation of strong seasonality in consumption. This can boost sentiment.
Seasonal positioning: Some institutional investors may wrap up positions or reduce risk ahead of the holiday lull, influencing flows.
“Take-the-money and go” mood: With many taking time off, some traders may close or reduce positions, which can reduce drag or volatility.
Retail stocks in focus: Because consumer behaviour comes into sharper focus around Thanksgiving/Black Friday, retail and consumer stocks often draw attention.
Traders, Vacations & Turkey — Some Fun Facts
Many traders plan their mini-vacation around this week so think fewer meetings and a lighter calendar. Some desks effectively wind down early.
According to one report, nearly 80 million Americans travel during Thanksgiving holiday periods. That’s a lot of empty desks and fewer emails.
Some trading desks treat the week like a “half-rally, half-holiday” monitoring markets, but also squeezing in some pumpkin-pie time.
It’s a curious psychological moment: markets calm and “holiday spirit” may seep in, sometimes translating into gentler risk-on moves.
One quirk: The day before Thanksgiving (often a half-day for many offices) tends to show one of the stronger daily performances of the week. Traders may want to rotate for early exits.
As of November 2023, “US airline stocks have rebounded as Thanksgiving travel ramps up with a record 30 million people expected to take to the skies over the holiday period.” For example, the shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) gained approx. 16.7% in the month leading up to the holiday from one point in time.
In 2024 amid the Thanksgiving travel-period, stocks of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) rose 2.8% and Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) 1.6% in response to stronger travel demand.
What Should Financial Marketers Think About?
If you work in financial services marketing, Thanksgiving week is a great “hook period”. Craft content around: “What the holiday-week market behaviour tells us”, “Why traders are watching consumer stocks now”, or “5 things investors can do during lighter volume weeks”.
With many traders and clients off for the holiday, news may travel more slowly, consider when you issue investor updates or press releases (e.g., early in the week before people sign off).
Take time to wish your clients a Happy Thanksgiving whether that’s by email or via social media.
Wishing You a Prosperous and Peaceful Thanksgiving
As we head into the holiday, we’d like to take a moment to thank our US clients and partners for your continued trust and collaboration throughout the year.
Please note that U.S. financial markets will be closed on Thursday, November 27, for Thanksgiving Day, and will reopen for a shortened trading session on Friday, November 28, closing at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Whether you’re analysing markets, carving the turkey, or simply enjoying time with family, we wish you a Happy Thanksgiving filled with gratitude, good company, and maybe even a little market cheer.
