Key Events for Forex Brokers in July 2024
As a leading financial services marketing agency, we provide analysis, PR, articles, education centres and much more for our fintech, forex and banking clients. As we enter July and kick off H2, the markets are primed to hot up! Here’s a quick overview of all the important things due to happen this month that may impact market movements.
1. Trump vs. Biden — the battle for the Oval Office continues
You cannot have missed the news last week that these old (no pun intended) adversaries locked horns for their first debate ahead of the 2024 Presidential election in November.
Okay, so the next (and last) official debate isn’t happening until 10 September, but there will be plenty of swings, misses and heavy blows before then — including in July.
For a start, the Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee from 15–18 July. Aside from that, you may have noticed that Mr. Trump isn’t exactly evasive or shy when it comes to pushing his agenda. Expect a lot of bluff, bluster and return fire on an almost daily basis. Worries over Biden’s health surged after a poor display by the current President
While these spats may not affect the markets directly now, the way this race is going, will make traders sit up and take notice, preparing for the most likely outcome.
2. The UK General Election
If you’re interested in market-moving elections, you don’t have to wait long. The UK General Election is happening much sooner — literally Thursday this week! Almost all polls have Labour projected to win the race for seats for the first time since 2005.
UK General Election Polls, Source: BBC
Expect GBP to experience volatility in the immediate aftermath of the election results. The markets are known to react strongly to political uncertainty, and a change in government can may well lead short-term fluctuations in the currency.
As with the US election, there may be short-term fluctuations in the stock market as investors reassess their portfolios.
3. General US Stock Market History
While it’s not strictly an event itself, since 1928, July has been the best month of the year, on average, in terms of stock-market performance. So the month is a spectacle in its own right.
Over those 96 years, the S&P 500 SPX has experienced a gain of 1.7% in July and finished the month higher more than 60% of the time, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Likewise, since 1897 the Dow Jones Industrial Average has delivered an average monthly increase of 1.4% in July — clearly making July the best month of the year. The Dow has recorded positive returns in nearly 65% of the Julys since then.
But don’t get too excited. The history books also tell us that July in election years are notoriously hit and miss. You’ve been warned!
4. FOMC Meeting — Wednesday, July 31
This is a biggie that a lot of investors will be keeping their eyes on. But what could happen? Many experts are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at a target of 5.25%-5.50%, as the Fed still waits for inflation to ease a little more. It did the same in June and prior meetings, so no major change in that policy is expected.
But expectations don’t always turn into reality…
Your Turn!
Brokers, what’s your key focus this month? What patterns are you observing with your traders? Let us know on X at @_contentworks.
Top Fundamental Events This Month
On top of the major potential events, we’ve put together a quick list of a bunch of other fundamentals that might make the markets swing this month.
July 1–7
● EUR — German Inflation Rate YoY (Preliminary)
● USD — ISM Manufacturing PMI
● USD — FOMC Minutes
● GBP — UK General Election
● USD — Non-farm Payrolls
● USD — Unemployment Rate
July 8–14
● GBP — GDP (MoM)
● USD — Inflation Rate (MoM, YoY)
● USD — PPI (MoM
July 15–21
● CAD — Inflation Rate (YoY)
● USD — Retail Sales (MoM)
● GBP — Inflation Rate (YoY)
● EUR — ECB Interest Rate Decision
● JPY — Inflation Rate YoY
● GBP — Retail Sales MoM
July 22–28
● CAD — BoC Interest Rate Decision
● USD — Personal Spending MoM
● USD — Personal Income
July 22–28
● CNY — Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI
● JPY — BoJ Interest Rate Decision
● USD — Employment Cost Index QoQ
● USD — Fed Press Conference
Here at Contentworks we closely follow market movements and prep content that we think your traders would love to read. Let’s get you started.
Speak soon!
The Contentworks team
PS — Happy Independence Day to our friends across the pond, and Happy Election Day to everyone in the UK!
