US Presidential Election 2024: A Quick Round-up
The US Presidential election is now just months away and SO much has happened since we last reported on it. Today, we’re rounding up the latest news and assessing the potential market impacts of the main candidates should they win. Without further ado, let’s go!
Who’s still in the running?
Last week, the list of potential candidates for the 2024 presidency got even thinner. As of now, there are only a handful of people still in the race. They include Democrat front-runner and current President Joe Biden, and the two remaining, yet unlikely hopefuls — Marianne Williamson and Jason Palmer. Now that Nikki Haley dropped out, the only remaining Republican candidate is Donald Trump.
NOTE: There are 3 independent candidates, but historically third-parties have never fared well in the US, so we’ll skip them for now, if you don’t mind.
As it’s highly likely that Biden will win the Democratic primary race, we’ll focus on him and Trump for today. Let’s take a closer look at their stances and what they might mean for both the US and global economies.
Joe Biden (DEM)
Oddschecker odds: 2/1
President Biden has tried to portray himself as a protector of democracy and a stabilising force after the upheaval of the Trump administration. Few can argue that it’s been more turbulent!
This time around, he’s campaigning on his bipartisan accomplishments, like his infrastructure bill, and his support for key topics like abortion rights.
Potential impact of re-election
The US economy has managed to grow throughout most of Biden’s term in office, beginning with a rapid expansion in 2021, followed by more modest growth in 2022 and an upturn in late 2023.
Last year, the economy grew at a pace of 2.5%, surprising many analysts who expected slower growth or even the possibility of a recession.
Government “interference” was a major positive contributor to that impressive growth. This included an infrastructure investment package and the Inflation Reduction Act, which contained incentives for green energy projects.
While stocks have seesawed over the course of the Biden administration — largely thanks to a bear market in 2022 — the S&P 500 recently bounced back to hit all-time highs.
The S&P 500 during Biden’s presidency
Source: TradingView
Speaking of the macro-level, the two candidates couldn’t be more opposed in their stance on America’s role on the world stage, NATO and particularly the importance of conflict in Ukraine. Biden is still confident that his $60 billion aid package will go through, but it needs Congressional support. However this is not necessarily a vote winning move.
Either way, Biden’s commitment to NATO and its European allies remains a source of strength and confidence that impacts the global markets in a positive manner. His reselection will likely bolster the global economy in that regard. Status quo and all that jazz.
However, a number of commentators have expressed concerns over the incumbent president’s age. He’s the oldest president in US history, turning 82 this year. Though Trump is no spring chicken himself, Biden’s age and fears over his health could impact the economy during a potential second term.
Donald Trump (REP)
Oddschecker odds: 1/1
Trump is favourite to win the election and so sit a second term. He’s running to retake the Oval Office that he lost in 2020, which he then denied losing to the point of inciting a mob of his supporters to attack the United States Capitol.
His influence within the Republican Party has slightly diminished since last time, Trump retains a large and extremely committed base of supporters, and he’s been aided recently by multiple challengers splitting a limited anti-Trump vote.
Potential impact of re-election
Despite Biden’s great record, generally speaking, there’s a belief that stocks perform better under Republican presidents thanks to their hands-off approach to the market.
The S&P 500 rose more than 60% during Trump’s tenure, including weathering the initial shock of COVID-19.
The S&P 500 during Trump’s presidency
Source: TradingView
However, the biggest impact of Trump’s potential second term is likely to be felt on a macro-scale. His recent comments on NATO and the repercussions that could have in Europe with the continuing conflict in Ukraine could bring instability on a scale not seen before.
An escalation in the trade war with China, including implementing tariffs on US imports, could be what ultimately moves markets. The result could be a drop in US GDP and a hit to corporate profits.
Deepening divisions among the US population and potential for the instability that could bring to the US economy is also something likely keeping American execs up at night.
Let’s also not forget that Trump has his own personal battles to fight, with the 91 criminal charges hanging over him. He’s the first president in 234 years of the Union to be formally indicted. If even one of those charges sticks, we could see POTUS behind bars. Because of this, a lot of interest over the coming months will be on Trump’s running mate and potential VP.
Election timeline
If the election has left you a little dizzy, here’s a reminder of what’s coming up.
Note: Between now and the end of June, each state will hold it’s primary or caucus, formally ratifying their candidate.
July 15–18
Republican Convention (Milwaukee, WI)
August 19–22
Democratic Convention (Chicago, IL)
September 16
Presidential Debate (San Marcos, TX)
September 25
Vice Presidential Debate (Easton, PA)
October 1
Presidential Debate (Petersburg, VA)
October 9
Presidential Debate (Salt Lake City, UT)
November 5
2024 Presidential Election
December 17
Electors Cast Their Votes
Are you ready?
Who do you think would be better for the US economy? And the global economy? Join the debate over on X — @_contentworks!
Top fundamental events week commencing 11/03/24
It’s going to be a pretty calm week in the markets. Let’s see what’s in store.
Monday
No major events are scheduled.
Tuesday
● AUD — NAB Business Confidence
● GBP — Unemployment Rate
● USD — Inflation Rate MoM; Core Inflation Rate MoM; Core Inflation Rate YoY; Inflation Rate YoY
Wednesday
● GBP — GDP MoM; Manufacturing Production MoM; Manufacturing Production YoY
Thursday
● USD — PPI MoM; Retail Sales MoM
Friday
● USD — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
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Speak soon!
The Contentworks team
