US Presidential Election 2024: Who’s In The Running?

Having just passed the crucial mid-term elections, we’re now officially halfway through Joe Biden’s presidency. In a little under 2 years, he will be challenged for the Oval Office. But who are the challengers and what are their politics? Today, we’re taking a quick look before checking the hottest trading events of the week. Let’s do this!

Who could run for President in 2024?

There’s still a long way to go. 2 years to be precise, and we all know that is a long time in politics. The two main parties still need to host primaries to pick their candidates for president and vice president. While it’s early days, our picture of who may run is getting a little clearer day by day. Here’s a quick rundown of the top contenders that we know of and a brief look at their political positions.

Joe Biden (Democrat)

Source: Wikipedia

President Biden has previously stated that he does intend to run for re-election in 2024 and would likely make a final decision early next year. His stance is likely buoyed by last week’s mid-term result, which saw the democrats hold on to the Senate and only narrowly miss out on retaining the House of Representatives.

Biden is a mainstream Democrat if ever we saw one. His policies emphasise the needs of middle-class and working-class Americans. As president, he’s been keen to tackle budgetary issues, infrastructure spending, sustainability concerns, student loan reform, and trade. He’s also been proactive in terms of US relations overseas, particularly in offering military ad financial aid to Ukraine. The latter has not necessarily pleased US voters.

However, a number of commentators have expressed concerns over the incumbent president’s age. He’s the oldest president the country has ever had, celebrating his 80th birthday just yesterday. This may play some part in his decision to run in 2 years’ time.

Kamala Harris (Democrat)

Source: Wikipedia

Vice President Harris may stand, should Biden decide not to. With her politics naturally aligned with Biden’s, Harris is extremely popular with the party’s base and way ahead of any other Democrat bar Joe Biden.

In fact, a July poll by Premise highlighted that democrats were more interested in the candidacy of Kamala Harris and Hilary Clinton than Joe Biden. 61% of those polled said they would prefer a new president and only 38% said they’d welcome another four years of Biden.

Hilary Clinton (Democrat)

Source: Wikipedia

Speaking of Hilary Clinton. That Premise poll gave her 19% of the vote and there’s clearly some strong support for the former first lady and Secretary of State. Clinton previously ran for the presidency in 2008, losing the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama; and again in 2016, losing the final vote to Donald Trump.

In 2015, she described her political stance as “progressive”, though a New York Times analysis found that Clinton and Bernie Sanders voted the same way 93% of the time in the two years they shared in the Senate (2007–2009). So Hilary is perhaps a little more centre-left than she realises.

In the 2016 Presidential election, Clinton beat Trump in the popular vote by over 2%, though lost out on Electoral College votes. She’s widely expected to be a popular candidate for the Democrats and a key rival to Harris, should Biden not stand in 2024.

Donald Trump (Republican)

Source: Wikipedia

This one needs little introduction. Billionaire business mogul Trump won the 2016 US Presidential election, beating Clinton by 77 electoral college votes.

His 4-years in the Oval Office were among the most controversial in US history. Starting with his plan to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico (which was only half complete by the time Biden took office and shut it down) — and eventually ending with a refusal to accept the result of the 2020 Presidential election, resulting in armed protesters storming the US Capitol.

Trump last week announced that he would be standing in 2024, stating “America’s golden age is just ahead.”

Despite this announcement and his significant support among the Republican base, Trump is not a popular figure to many Americans outside the party and his potential candidacy could damage the Republican party at large. Trump has also had a mixed record with the candidates he endorsed in the midterm elections, some of whom may directly blame him.

Fun fact: Elon Musk has just reinstated Trump’s Twitter account!

Do Americans have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Donald Trump?

Source: FiveThirtyEight

Ron DeSantis (Republican)

Source: Wikipedia

Very popular among the party faithful. Ron DeSantis is seen as Trump’s number-one rival within the party. The Florida governor cruised to a landslide victory in the midterms in his bid for a second term in office.

His opposition to COVID-19 restrictions (he signed a law prohibiting the wearing of masks and social distancing) and regular clashes with liberals over LGBTQ rights, immigration, and race-based discussions underline his pure Conservative Republicanism.

Controversy (Trump) vs. controversy (DeSantis) might be interesting, especially as the two men are not at all fond of each other. Pass us the popcorn, please.

What do you think?

Who do you think will run in 2024? And who has the best chance of winning? Tweet us at @_contentworks.

What’s up in the markets this week?

An eerily quiet week lies ahead. Here’s what’s on the agenda.

Monday

No major events are scheduled.

Tuesday

No major events are scheduled.

Wednesday

● NZD — RBNZ Press Conference

● USD — Durable Goods Orders MoM (OCT); Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (NOV); FOMC Minutes

Thursday

● EUR — ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

Thanksgiving — The NYSE, Nasdaq and U.S. bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 24. It’s one of the final market holidays for 2022 as the year starts to wrap up.

Friday

No major events are scheduled.

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Speak soon!

The Contentworks team

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Contentworks Agency provides compliance friendly content to banks, forex brokers, fintechs and many other sectors.

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Contentworks Agency

Contentworks Agency provides compliance friendly content to banks, forex brokers, fintechs and many other sectors.