Well, it finally happened. Formal impeachment hearings against US President, Donald Trump are not only official, they’re now in full swing. There’s a long way to go and, let’s be honest, a lot of really juicy information to come, but today we’re asking ourselves, “what if”. IF the president gets impeached, what could happen to the stock market? We’ll also give you a rundown of the hottest trading events this week. Feet up? Tea in hand? Let’s go…
Wait, What’s the News?
ICYMI: Public impeachment hearings against Trump began last Wednesday in Washington D.C., kicking off with the testimonies of two top foreign-service officers.
This was followed up on Friday with the testimony of Marie Yovanovitch, the former US ambassador to Ukraine. More key figures will testify later this month in the hearings that centre on whether or not the President forced the Ukrainian government into digging up the dirty on political rival Joe Biden for his personal political gain. Not cool at all.
What Could Happen If the President Gets Impeached?
Well, so far, the stock market hasn’t been too bothered. The S&P 500 closed at a record high both Wednesday and Thursday. Many analysts are stating that “nothing new” has been revealed, yet. At the moment, everything related to the inquiry has been known about and talked about for some time. Effectively, the markets have priced-in everything that’s going on.
Historically, it’s hard to tell what can happen to the stock market during and following an impeachment inquiry, long term. The stock market stumbled during Nixon’s impeachment, but boomed throughout Clinton’s, with the S&P 500 gaining 41.6% six months after the inquiry in 1998.
So, what happens from now on in is anyone’s guess. But, if history has anything to say, it does seem like the markets might care more about the overall state of the economy than the hearings going on in DC. But, as with all things Trump, this is definitely one to keep a keen eye on.
…Who are we kidding? You can’t really miss it, it’s everywhere!
Key events this week
There’s never a dull moment in the financial markets, something is always going down (or up!). Because of that, we decided to draw up a handy little cheat-sheet for you, containing all of the most important events for the coming week right here, where you can gobble them up in one, easily digestible mouthful. So, here’s what coming up this week.
● Our week kicks off on Tuesday, with the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD). The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion from two weeks ago.
● Wednesday sees some UK Inflation Report Hearings (GBP), followed by the Bank of Canada’s release of the YoY Consumer Price Index for October (CAD). Finally, we’ll zip across to the US for the release of the FOMC Minutes (USD).
● On Thursday, the European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR), which contains an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments.
● We’ll close the week with a very busy Friday, as Germany announces its Manufacturing PMI (EUR). Shortly after that, both Germany and the EU announce their Composite PMIs (EUR). And, finally, the Canadian Retail Sales (CAD) report will be released by Statistics Canada.
Those are the top events we recommend looking out for. Watch out for those potential price movements!
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The Contentworks Team